by eric-pal » Sat Jan 21, 2023 9:12 pm
Nice catch!
Mack may still go for 4 ticks now adays but the volatility has significantly increased, as has the number of bars that individuals can make an error on w/o a good plan or eye
.
You do not really need to bring up 21 atr to determine this though. Simply review 21 bars historically and you can estimate fairly well how much each bar moves on average! In the graphic, average bar size appears as about 6 ticks or slightly more.
This is one of the reasons that reasonable tick targets must be increased to maintain a 67% ratio as break even (roughly) - 1/2 ATR, or roughly 1/2 the average bar size. Of course, depending on personality or eye, if the ATR is 3+ some individuals go for 8 ticks or 1:1. These are additional options.
Can one scalp for 4 ticks still? Yes. However, when you realize one needs the ability to recognize 80%+ probability and only execute on that -> 1 point win, 3 point loss = 4 point coverage. 3/4 -> 75% w/o margins . . . Much more difficult. Also, it takes more than 2 trades to break even. With higher probability one is taking fewer trades per day, and requiring more days to make up for errors or bad events. . . . Psychologically much more difficult to do. . . . Hi I lost on Monday and perhaps on Thursday I'll be back to break even. . .
Hopefully helpful and good trades to you!
Nice catch!
Mack may still go for 4 ticks now adays but the volatility has significantly increased, as has the number of bars that individuals can make an error on w/o a good plan or eye :).
You do not really need to bring up 21 atr to determine this though. Simply review 21 bars historically and you can estimate fairly well how much each bar moves on average! In the graphic, average bar size appears as about 6 ticks or slightly more.
This is one of the reasons that reasonable tick targets must be increased to maintain a 67% ratio as break even (roughly) - 1/2 ATR, or roughly 1/2 the average bar size. Of course, depending on personality or eye, if the ATR is 3+ some individuals go for 8 ticks or 1:1. These are additional options.
Can one scalp for 4 ticks still? Yes. However, when you realize one needs the ability to recognize 80%+ probability and only execute on that -> 1 point win, 3 point loss = 4 point coverage. 3/4 -> 75% w/o margins . . . Much more difficult. Also, it takes more than 2 trades to break even. With higher probability one is taking fewer trades per day, and requiring more days to make up for errors or bad events. . . . Psychologically much more difficult to do. . . . Hi I lost on Monday and perhaps on Thursday I'll be back to break even. . .
Hopefully helpful and good trades to you!