Top Pick Trading Forum

I keep things as simple as possible, so I'm using the best bars in the best contexts.

Why? Because my personality currently trades with high probability. Because it is "obvious", it is easier (need to be fast though). But it takes patience. It has become easier, but that is a "personality thingy".

However, many get caught up in this. . . Once one is able to recognize what an edge is, and understands how to test (not live market), the individual can then build to their limits. Most, when beginning, just see randomness and so do not have the capacity to build an edge. Once one sees an edge, and can operate, things can open up.

I also intuitively know that there are always other trades. Not "thinking" but subconsciously, and enough occur throughout a week. This prevents a "have to" psychological push. Any given day no trades - and it is very slow today so I'm not trading - - so what.

But this is a key differentiation between swing trading and scalping. Scalping - - you want to know. Swing trading (40%) - well you don't know. Sometimes there are overlaps between where a scalp becomes a swing (especially in a trending market).

Finally, when one understands how to evaluate, and what an edge appears as, it becomes possible to trade other markets too (I'm not doing this just yet but it is a potential).

An edge and how we feel about an edge are two different things. One has to work with the edge - - - how you feel really doesn't matter towards how an edge plays out. This is a critical aspect of Mark Douglas' work.

Good trades to you!

eric-pal wrote: ↑Sun Nov 26, 2023 6:53 pm There are so many potentials. More than most people realize. However, you have worked very hard this year and are working to extend things. At this point it becomes being comfortable to find consistency in action and what you can reproduce. Not to "do anything" but simply to trade - - naturally and effortless if possible (but it may never feel like this).

About the bold above, are you able to trade that way Eric? I mean trade without doubt or anxiety and secure in your edge?

Well, you are looking "beyond the bars now" so I will offer kudos.

Here is where you need to be careful though, and it all gets back into context. Everyone "wants to take a trade" and have it be profitable. This fundamentally is a problem though because wanting to take a trade doesn't have anything to do with trading and may be ego based to prove something (well to prove that "I made it").

With that being said, whether it directly applies or not, here is the issue.

1. Signal bar -> sucks but you are asking to see beyond it. Well, what do you see beyond it? [please consider before reading the remainder]


2. Based on the signal bar, the assumption is that the close then moved directly into the next bar and had good selling throughout that bar. Did it? I'm not certain however, if you see it then there is potential. But what else is there?

3. The previous selloff didn't complete and turned upwards. Interesting. Is this sufficient pressure coming in?

4. 2nd entry short one might term, but notice how the upwards move may be tight. There are implications here.

5. Taking the short, you need to see where potential buying support may come in, as it has before (I'm not certain this was seen?).

There are so many potentials. More than most people realize. However, you have worked very hard this year and are working to extend things. At this point it becomes being comfortable to find consistency in action and what you can reproduce. Not to "do anything" but simply to trade - - naturally and effortless if possible (but it may never feel like this).

The questions above should lead to direct understanding, and if they do not, then the answer to taking the trade (whoever may be reading this) will be no.

Hopefully helpful and good trades to you!

Ive been marinating on Taylors reply above for a few days now and to be honest I completely agree with what is being said and why, but dont understand how that translates to the below setup being less probable than a setup that has a perfect signal bar. Clearly in the attached image, what we are looking for in a setup happened as we wanted it to, but the timing was not in alignment with our charts tick starting point. I understand from a "beginner" perspective that a great signal bar eliminates alot of extra consideration, but this setup seems just as probable as another and if thats not the case then I am not understanding something important.

Assumptions:

The context for the attached setup is great
I understand second entries, momentum, and "normal" signal bars etc.

Thanks Strange I will give it a try!

Hey Strange,
I think the best way I can explain it is as follows: Bad bars (without congestion) are not ALWAYS an indication of a lack of momentum. It can simply be a limitation of our period of sampling as you said. However, it can be extremely difficult/impossible to correctly interpret strong momentum WITHOUT a good signal bar and setup bar. The 2 charts are sampling the market at different times, so we may just catch the right sampling period on one chart but not the other. We know characteristically how to view bars in a certain way that is favorable or unfavorable, so we must adhere to this fact in my opinion. I will say that the stronger the consensus of momentum, the higher likelihood a good bar aligns on multiple charts, especially if that consensus of momentum is sustained for a quantity much higher than our bar sampling size (2000 ticks).
I like to think about the multi chart offset sampling like this:
A helicopter does a mile loop and ends where it starts after 1 minute. You KNOW the starting point and you have 2 radars that sample every minute. Your first radar samples right before it started the loop and then after one minute, it samples again. Guess what, the helicopter didn't move according to the first radar.
Your second radar is offset by 30 seconds. So after 30 seconds, it samples and sees that the helicopter moved.
The helicopter moved regardless of if the radars detected that or not. Some radars will know it did, some wont. It is all relative to your sampling time.
Prices move independent of any chart, we just hope our sampling time aligns for us to see what we KNOW is a good indication of momentum. However, this is fundamentally WHY we use tick charts rather than time charts. Tick charts increase the likelihood of capturing good momentum in a way that we can interpret it correctly with our bars. It is not perfect, but they fundamentally have a higher probability than time charts of capturing it. However, you still have to correctly read the context to know when it is a good trade or not, as you know. Hope this helps. The Big Swiss articles that Eric wrote can probably help you understand this even more if you have not read them.

jasons wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 6:00 pm Hey Strange! is that an indicator you're using that shows the ticks for the 1:1, 1:2 and so on?

Thx

Yeah bro, this is it right here as well as my settings. Click the mouse wheel above a bar or below a bar and then mouse wheel click again on the same bar to remove it.

https://ninjatraderecosystem.com/user-a ... riskruler/

Hey Strange! is that an indicator you're using that shows the ticks for the 1:1, 1:2 and so on?

Thx

The other day there was a TPT video and taylor was talking about setups on a second chart with a tick offset from the regular 2K chart we have setup like mack does and the goal was to advance/retard the "time" (ticks) of the chart so that there is a secondary opportunity to enter with a good signal bar, but still keep a 2k tick chart.

I liked this idea but ive been wondering why we cant just enter on a "bad" signal bar that prints well with all the right momentum. I mean an entry that is contextually good but the only reason the signal bar was bad is because the timing of the chart.

Attached is the kind of thing im talking about. I dont mean to ignore a bad signal bar, I mean the only reason this trade was a no-go is because its a bullish bar, but in reality the timing was just off. Many many many such cases, infact this probably happens more than a great signal bar does.

If a trader recognizes whats happening there and why, can we just put a limit order in there once the bearish bar prints?


Or once the bullish bar prints?