Top Pick Trading Forum

First, if one doesn't "see a trade" then there isn't a trade. Why - because high probability doesn't feel like "fog". It feels damn certain (even if it fails). I think many get caught up in the "I have to find something to match Mack" trap, and it forces one to "look for things" that may not be there. . . .

In fact Mack indirectly mentions this in saying, take all the trades one "should" (in sim) and compare at the end of the day. Fear is a very real thing, as is satisfying the ego.

I will disagree with you on intentional institutions. There are common things that happen based on probabilities. One of the more common ones is most breakouts fail. Except when there is a trend day. Yesterday was a trend day right up until 12 pm. How can I be so certain? I'll tell you in a minute for you to outline and post the graphic here to convince yourself. However, as far as intentional institutions, after you post that graphic I want you to very closely work through the 12:15 - 14:55 timeframe. You will see that bullish institutions are working to reverse the trendand from 14:35 - 14:55 they work a "second try" . . . and then they FAIL. It isn't that the institutions are doing anything in coordination, but after "so many attempts" one side often will "give up", and the trend may continue for 2 additional legs down - as failures usually lead to 2 legs.

Please post the 5 minute chart, outlining the gaps between lower highs and higher lows. Note the lack of overlap, which shows strength of the bears. Simply because the bulls are unable to close the gap - - - they can't (though they try)! Then work back through the 2k chart and see the same thing.

Trend days are more difficult as many of the trades are based on traps (when both sides then agree the market is singularly directional). Yesterday was a 10% day (though it could have turned around at 3pm (to trading range more likely - less likely reversal). . . just didn't happen.

Hopefully helpful and good trades to you!

My monitor isnt big enough to see enough 2k tick chart data at once, and the daily chart while helpful isnt detailed enough, then I remembered Al Brooks likes the 5 min and 60 min charts, has a 60 min EMA on his 5 min charts, so hopped on a 60 min chart and its all much more clear now. I knew we were in a trading range (looks like congestion on the daily chart) but yeah, makes more sense now. Lots of warning but I wasnt looking in the right place. Im also even more convinced that the rally and the sell off was intentional LOL.

Everyone is trying to give that uptrend in premarket a break and new high so they can justify the reversal and its just a coincidence that it ended up a trend from the open day and finished as a big bear bar finishing on its low on the daily chart?

This seems extremely intentional to me, and the only real clues that it was going to happen is the clever timing and the gap up on RTH.

Do you have any thoughts on this Eric?

Also, did you get into any trade on this day? I did not see anything at all from the "easy" perspective. It was obvious from early on that it was likely to be a down day but they didnt want to give up any good trendlines or anything to really trade off of.