Top Pick Trading Forum

Some excellent observations above!!!!

If there is a trick to all of this, it is to take what we recognize, in real time. Which makes this a process of observation and review. This is why it is recommended to keep track of the number of trades taken according to a plan, and that plan has been tested to show an edge. In this way, through review, we can uncover our mistakes - oh I should have "taken this", when nothing was seen, or I shouldn't have taken this (because it is a ghost and there really wasn't anything to observe - it just looks "good on a chart").

Beginning from the start of of the year, the price action has turned more towards FOMO based momentum, and small pullback trends, which both are more difficult because the moves begin often after prices have moved, and keep on going. Systems which user lower probabilities can take advantage of these situations much better sometimes. You will often hear Mack say for these situations, and mark everything "green", if you understand what is happening here, you can take this . . . Have you noticed the frequency increase in this statement since the beginning of the year.

So the market moves in cycles, and over time we begin to recognize them, as well as situations where we perform better vs others.

The following is an interesting quick study. Right after the market just began to turn down (towards the very beginning), on the 5 minute chart, you will see gaps begin to form where the open of the next bar is lower than the previous close. While it isn't uncommon to see this from time to time, on an efficient market like the ES this doesn't happen often, especially on a 5 min chart (I trade time and tick charts). Before the larger sell off, and still early in the selloff, you'll notice series of these jumps. You will incorporate more of the "signs" you have learned to recognize, on whatever chart you use.

The Byrds: To everything, turn, turn, turn. There is a season - turn, turn, turn. And a time to every purpose under Heaven.

GREAT WORK!!!!

Its interesting, looking back at my old posts, I have definitely grown alot. Even the chart I posted above has several good trades that I didnt mark at the time I posted but see them now. Cant believe I was actually complaining about it at the time.

I swear, these last few days/week or so have been really frustrating. Frustrating might not be the best word, maybe tiresome/boring/annoying would be a better choice. I would be EXTATIC for a trading day like the one I posted above in this thread, theres entries all over the chart compared to whats been happening lately. Waiting hours for something to happen and find a good KEP only to get a shit signal bar or congestion or whatever and these instances themself seem to be happening rarely.

Its really a test of patience and mental fortitude which I am absolutely better at now than I ever have been but its hard to not let my destructive brain take over and start to doubt everything.

Its not just me is it? good context second entries with a reasonable signal bar just arent happening at the moment? I got 2 trades right after the open on Tuesday, and thats it, and not much better for the previous week either.

Am I just not seeing them or has the market been stingy lately? Just need to check with someone to make sure im not slippin' LOL

Greed and impatience can be difficult, as they are both expectations. And the difficult part about trading is expectations do not matter. . . you can't control any of it (and neither can I).

Which means, the trade will arrive when it does. The issue then becomes mental fatigue until it arrives. Being able to sit in attention comfortably (which is where the zone and section 7 training pay off). The zone isn't either mystical or mythical, but it does take training. The book references are not accidental, but I do not expect the general public to be able to figure things out or have the patience to wade through 500+ books. . . And most I suspect do not even read the material.

Oh, who is this Josh Waitzkin guy who is endorsing this book? . . . oh - - - that guy. . . Well maybe there is more to this than I thought. (It is actually better than Josh's own book)

This is what makes scalping more difficult. Higher probability doesn't exist all the time but a few times a day. The next beneficial aspect is learning how to swing trade the runners well.

Hopefully helpful and good trades to you!

I actually got burned (along with about 100 other people) on the 2EL at about 0946 Eastern time and that kinda set the tone for that day, I saw most of those trades, the 1131 Eastern Time long, I was prepared to buy that but the signal bar finished too big, put a limit order where the trade triggered once the bar finished and it got tapped but not filled.

On reflection after reading your post it does seem much "easier" (path of least resistance) to just drill another setup or 2 for myself in the ES rather than "learning" a whole other market just to find "my" setups. Point well noted.

In the attachment, the red shorts are the type of second entry I have drilled into my dome and can spot with high accuracy, which are the types of trades I guess im complaining about that seem to not happen often enough sometimes. Which on reflection again I probably shouldnt be complaining about it as they happen often enough to make millions. I guess its my own impatience and desire talking.

The blue longs are the other trade I am decent at taking, but less accurate than second entries. Require a bit better context reading and attention to detail.

The green trades are trades that I am studying but have no business taking yet, as I am attempting to play areas where I believe there to be lots of short covering once prices push through an area where I think there will be lots of people short. Reversal points and transition areas.

But really, second entries either off the trendline, or S/R areas, or orderflow retest areas are what I can spot the best.

Actually after writing all this out, I have plenty of setups but my problem is probably more greed and impatience rather than setups LOL

Anyway, same time next week, Dr.

It is a great question!

At first, there isn't really a sense of "what am I looking for" and "what is the edge"? In the beginning, it is all just fog.

However, through training and experience, we begin to see that - yes, there actually is structure and reason behind selected trades. They are not accidental, or random. That is when "the lights" begin to come on. We experience "ahas" as we can anticipate specific situations.

But what happens after that? What if we do not see what we "would like" as often as we would want?
1. Develop our insights even more is an option. I've uploaded yesterday's Mack selection, of which many aspects of the edge are present. From what is marked "*", how could you find and anticipate these? What factors make these trades a potential candidate ---> and then work the simulation drills to see if you can develop edge on these trades.
2. Other markets, are a potential, as you bring up. Recognize that other markets may move differently. The ES is known for 4 ticks and moving 4-5 points at a time. Other markets have their own "personality" which you may have to discover.

In short, what can you recognize and develop? This becomes suiting your personality and performance, which is measurable. What was random, is not so much anymore. Explore, develop, measure, and test!

Hopefully helpful and good trades to you!

Hey Eric,

Revisiting this thread because I have not seen a good clean basic lay-up second entry since last friday. This KILLS me, sitting for hours and days and nothing happening the way I want it to. I know, I KNOW, technically I should be completely indifferent, it shouldnt matter either way trade or no trade, its a matter of quality trades over time. But its a battle with me and my desire to "get there" or "make it" and get freedom. This is the psychological aspect im working on, and its quite the struggle. I see trades, things happening, but they arent "my" trades.

A few questions if you dont mind:

1) In an effort to have realistic expectations, how often, generally, can one expect to see high probability second entries with great signal bars? I know its probably a hard question to quantify, some days (rare) there will be multiple perfect setups, and then there are days where there are none, and then days where there will be 1 single great beginner setup at the end of the day that is missed because ive packed in. Do you have any information that could help me set expectations?

2) Alternative markets. Do you have any markets that one could experiment with watching? Any alternatives when the ES isnt "behaving"? Anything here would be helpful in narrowing down options and not going down the wrong route out of inexperience. I like the idea of having more options for trades.

Thanks for sharing your knowledge and for any words of wisdom.

I wanted to post another aspect.

If one flips through the charts and analysis daily, one will see that there are some very high probability trades which occur on a daily basis. Part of the difficulty is waiting for the appropriate time to take action. Initially beginning with high probability, one begins to see important variables which create an edge.

However, internally one needs to become comfortable with the idea that if a trade is missed, for one reason or another, that another one will show up. If not today, there will be opportunities within the week. This is an internal believe, and while the charts show this to be true, when one becomes comfortable with this thought, and the ability to execute . . . . one can become much more objective about performance.

As an example, on Friday - - - - I took 0 trades. 0. No profits - - - and no losses. For an hour I was able to be available and watch the market, and a lot of what I saw didn't meet my criteria. It met some others, and that is ok. For breakout traders they caught the open, if they knew how to manage risk, and for those who don't, it turned around an ate them alive. It simply didn't matter to me. Being comfortable, with being uncomfortable is the trick initially. Building that trust in oneself that there isn't FOMO because the opportunities happen often enough. However, our expectation, and believe of that periodicity can be tricky. This year there has been a week when I didn't place a single trade. I still was at the market and watched for several hours each day. But my edge didn't sufficiently build. That doesn't make the market wrong. In fact, during this period many traders blew up their accounts because the market briefly "spewed out bars" left and right. Many may not have realized they were virtually trading a 30 second - 1 minute chart for almost a week. That is choppy and dangerous waters.

There are ways to mitigate these aspects through building resiliency. Some have been mentioned:
1. Alternative markets
2. Building depth of edge. Learning 80%+ is a great place to begin to manifest edge. One can then dive deeper.
a. 75% (1 tick), 70% - a wealth of trades in here (multi bar sequences). 60% - appropriate breakout strategies.
b. 60-75%+ - breakout strategies with appropriate risk management - Always In engagement.
c. 80% [40-60% trading range environments + scaling in techniques]. Risk management critical.
3. Limit order entries at appropriate zones [s/r - s/d]. Advanced. Initially market is moving in opposite direction. Stop placement critical.
4. Base reference changes. Time charts. If necessary time charts may be used and tick and time charts are drilled. Time charts are stable in reference and similar edge is exhibited. Some use range charts, which simply mitigates risk. Range charts are an attempt to capture longer period trends, which easily manifest on tick and time charts. Tick charts show evolution change first.

When one comes to trust oneself to work from a plan, consistently, that plan can be modified through experience and testing of other aspects which may be added from experience after proving one can operate from edge. Based on personality, not all aspects may be possible. That is ok. Something with enough opportunity is what one wants. If it is 1x a week with very high probability great. Personality may need 10+ trades in a day. This requires potentially a more active market, developing the capability of working with lower probability, etc. The trick is building consistency of edge first and then exploring "what is possible".

A popular trading method uses time charts - 81 bars in a day. Those 81 bars offer 40 trades. If one is working with 300+ bars using that knowledge . . . . The important aspects are developing contextual understanding of how the markets operate, simplifying to a robust methodology, proving consistency, and then expanding.

Hopefully helpful and good trades to you!

Great questions!

There is a reason why many do not succeed within this business, and it isn't often discussed or even mentioned by anyone . . . now why is that?!!!! There are also a few aspects to consider which may assist in overcomming.

1. The market works through cycles and periods. Depending on the type of setup and environment, there may be periods as long as 2 weeks to rarely 1 month that certain high probability situations do not happen. Why, because lower probability can exist for a period of time. A prime example is the last 2 weeks when the market has worked from oversold to overbought situations, and "small pullback" situations occur time, and time, and time again. Trying to "force the market" to be something other than what it is, even if it is low probability, time and again, feels like frustration. This is most often felt by those with less than 3 years experience because of not having lived or seen the market through its variety of changes. To remedy some of this, working through a whole years worth of charts, time and again, helps to familiarize individuals that yes, the market can do some weird things for consecutive periods of time. Noted, within a year, perhaps 80-90% of situations occur. Then you may get some very weird years like 2020. You see that once a decade or two (but for much shorter periods - 2020 IS THE EXCEPTION).
2. Feelings of performance will result in not being able to read the market at all. There is a ebb and flow to it which you must align with. It is "reading", which is more of an awareness and passive experience, vs a "proving" experience. There is sophistication to this, and Heart, Breath, and Mind practice allows one to synchronize better. Why - because in that mode pattern recognition is enhanced.
3. Once one is able to understand and achieve high probability, one has learned important components to look for and be aware of. Inexperienced individuals do not know what to look for or where to begin. This provides a relatable characteristic to find edge. Once having seen what an edge appears as, and the ability to identify, if necessary one can work to expand edge into lower probability situations. This is building on a foundation.
4. Additionally, when one have familiarity with how specific processes work, it is possible to include non-correlated markets. This is another way of increasing exposure to higher probability environments when some markets go quiet.
5. Summer "dole drums", typically in July and August, often catch those who want to "drive forward" off guard.

There have been trades, but they are fewer. The above cover ways to manage and one of the most important aspects is having a trading plan, and working from that. Why, because the trade plan allows you to track your performance against something you have proven to have reliability. Not in the plan & traded -> ERROR! On the plan & not taken -> ERROR. In the plan & lost -> GOOD TRADE (note over time some aspects may be refined).

In this way, one simply works to remove errors and allow an edge, which has been tested, to manifest. Not in the plan, relax as there is nothing to do. . . .

One of the harder aspects to teach, which sounds trivial, but is not - - - - Why did you take that trade?!!! Response: I had to, it is in the plan. This is not an option. This is the mechanical execution of a plan. The expertise to work from this, and not one's "rational mind?" of what it thinks will happen, which often does not without a lot of experience, allow experience of true expectation to grow over time. The markets are designed to take advantage of the emotional human biases and use it against them. This is why so few achieve success. It takes abandoning the emotional "I think" response, and working from a proven template to truly learn to see what is happening, and not our expectations of what we think should be happening (which is always a delayed process anyway).

Hopefully helpful and good trades to you!

Hello Eric/All

After a mountain of frustration and having tried everything other than just following the rules, I have admitted to myself that I am not yet skilled enough to trade complicated setups and for a while now I have gone back to basics and and im trading only second entries with a perfect signal bar (or one tick from it). No engulfing bars, no triple tests, nothing other than the basic bread and butter second entries with good context. I do see most of the trade possibilities as they form but having tried to take most of them, Im just not consistent enough with alot of them.

I am reading the chart, finding the KEP, and waiting there for a setup. As I wait at the KEP, I am laying out in my head the possible setup variations I am willing to take, and wont take anything unless is sets up cleanly and without congestion.

I am trading for the first 4-5 hours of the day, as that is about as long as I can maintain peak focus. Any longer and I force trades and get lazy.

This was never a problem before, usually there was always a decent setup within the first few hours or several decent setups in that time.

However, I have not seen a great second entry this whole week and have not taken a trade all week even though I am sitting here waiting for one. They just dont seem to be appearing where I am expecting them to, in the time that I am trading. There have been a few possibilities in that time, but there is almost always some significant reason not to take it. Entering at high of day, into strong resistance, congestion, engulfing bar, or the market just reverses. I dont remember this happening for the entire time I have been studying the market thus far.

Its not a trendline/context/chart reading problem I dont think, My chart usually matches mack pretty closely. Its just if we are looking for the setups prescribed in the lectures as the most consistent, they are rare as hens teeth lately.

Are you also noticing the same thing about the market? I guess Im just looking for perspective because obviously we are looking for the best entries, but at the same time you gotta trade to make money. Is this just a rough patch in the market? Am I being too cautious?

Any words of wisdom would be appreciated.