Top Pick Trading Forum

%Mack = (# of trades trader took)/(# Mack Trades) - Assumption of very close looking chart.

1. Preference for Red and Blue matchups as those most often are of higher quality and probability.

If you consistently take 2 trades and they match Mack's that is 100%.

Hopefully helpful and good trades to you!

Hey Eric,

Could you elaborate what you mean by Mack% rating? Is this how many trades line up to his end of the day review (blue or red etc)? Or simply aiming for 6 ticks?

Thanks again

There are critical gaps in this plan and this is not how I would recommend approaching this at all.

Why? What is missing?

1. What is the ability to execute and read the context of the market?
2. What is the ability to manage the trades and trade types?
3. What is your personal strengths and character strengths? ie. Can you identify a 1:1 situation vs a 2:1 or 1:2 situation?
4. Can you wait for the appropriate entry?
5. When is the signal bar too large and should not be taken?
6. How do you handle a loss?
7. What are your performance metrics on different types of trades?
8. No runner mgmt . . .
9. If trades to not move to 1:1 how do you manage?
10. The volatility of last year as well as different market influences may not make this year like last year. . . .
11. . . . . . The above is a quick listing.

Now, I'm not saying that the figure can not be earned, simply that your method of evaluating the potential needs a bit of further investigation and work. Example, let's say I was effectively trading 50s on Friday. If ended up +3 trades at 6 ticks per win (though 8 was very viable and 0 runners employed). This equates to 50x75x3 -> $11,250 for 1 day. There are a variety of ways one can trade that.

Keeping the above in mind, $100+k a year is very viable. With the ES, which is a highly liquid market, you can trade 50s. Can you manage 50s? How do you handle losses? Are you better long or short? Are you alright missing the best moves - note trading limit orders like that will miss the largest moves because they do not pause?

So, a better understanding of your personal biases and capabilities to read the market are critical.
1. Selecting best trading environment and waiting for "your appropriate trade". Honestly, this is where most get lost because they are looking for trades which have not been appropriately defined or identified. If the parameters are in place, just wait for "that trade", then take it and measure the results through the changing environment of a year. That would provide you stronger metrics.

[color=#0000FF]1 contract vs 50 contracts, with the exception of holiday or slow markets - - - - - > NO DIFFERENCE!
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This is a good thing because it means when consistent with 1, only your mental performance and then integrating runners and target sizes matter. 1:2, 1:1, 2:1 situations all involve probability and trade management.

If you were keeping track of your statistics in January, what is your %Mack rating? This will give you some feedback on trade selection. Run plenty of playback simulations to determine your strengths and weaknesses in different environments. These aspects will provide you a much stronger basis of current potential and ability to scale (what is the scaling method you will employ to scale up or down according to market environment, win/loss adaptations. . . ? How do you know when "you are off" because the market is always right?).

Hopefully helpful and good trades to you!

[attachment=0]riskreward11.JPG[/attachment]I just did some tests in excel for trade management.
Looking at last year, we can consider candlestick ranges between 2 and 6 points

My targets:
2 trades/day, 400 trades/year
Yearly goal after commissions: $140.000

The idea is:
Limit order 1 ticks better then real entry level (after breakout).
In long trade, limit order at high of signal bar after breakout
In short trade, limit order at low of signal bar after breakout

Stop loss as usual (1 tick above/below signal bar)
Risk:reward 1:1
(for example signal bar 12 ticks, target 12ticks, SL 12 ticks)
Commissions: 4.08/contract (ninjatrader account)

with 60% of winning trades we can reach our yearly goal varying number of contracts between 8 and 29 (see attached image).
Selecting just 2 trades/day (good signal bar, KEP, enough room in front of the trade, etc), 60% seems a reasonable percentage, even if i'll miss trades without 1-2 ticks retracement
$140.000 goal is reached even if all losing trades are 5.25 points trades and all winning trades are 6 points trades (worst scenario)

no trades with signal bar range <1,75 points and > 6 points.

I'd like to read your opinions