by eric-pal » Thu Jul 06, 2023 10:03 pm
[Note the marked trade appears different from your description: trading range and rejection was expected near the top -> big down -> big up -> big confusion so not a surprise]
Marked Trade
What I like :
1. Your trade is taken after the 3 bear bar selloff, and then the stronger 4 bear bar reverse. Good downward pressure building
2. From the 4 bar selloff, we do expect another test down.
3. The bull bar which follows only reaches 50% of the range of the 4 bear bars so approx area of potential.
Areas of concern:
1. Failed (anything). Failures attract people because it makes them feel smarter. This is a 1st entry long attempt to retest the previous high. Failures take a bit more practice.
2. The signal bar sucks. 50% of the bar is the lower tail which is rejection, upwards. The trade has to travel almost 1/2 of the bar to enter with a stop. Much higher risk for many reasons then.
3. Bear bar does not tick higher than bull bar. This makes it an inside bar and lower probability.
4. Selling into potential support at 4443. Notice the continued rebound from this line.
There was a bit of risk on this one that hopefully the points above point out.
Hopefully helpful and good trades to you!
[Note the marked trade appears different from your description: trading range and rejection was expected near the top -> big down -> big up -> big confusion so not a surprise]
Marked Trade
What I like :
1. Your trade is taken after the 3 bear bar selloff, and then the stronger 4 bear bar reverse. Good downward pressure building
2. From the 4 bar selloff, we do expect another test down.
3. The bull bar which follows only reaches 50% of the range of the 4 bear bars so approx area of potential.
Areas of concern:
1. Failed (anything). Failures attract people because it makes them feel smarter. This is a 1st entry long attempt to retest the previous high. Failures take a bit more practice.
2. The signal bar sucks. 50% of the bar is the lower tail which is rejection, upwards. The trade has to travel almost 1/2 of the bar to enter with a stop. Much higher risk for many reasons then.
3. Bear bar does not tick higher than bull bar. This makes it an inside bar and lower probability.
4. Selling into potential support at 4443. Notice the continued rebound from this line.
There was a bit of risk on this one that hopefully the points above point out.
Hopefully helpful and good trades to you!
