Ciao Guys!

[misterf]

Hi guys I am studying like a mad the price action lectures and doing some simulation in the meantime.. I find this PA very hard to understand..Am I the only one?
I took right now a trade, 2ES TT FBO. 4ticks 1st take profit and No runner cause it got stopped.. is it that bad? I know it's a short in an uptrend but longs are killing me every time so I am taking reversal, this one looked good

[Marco]

Hey and welcome

You answered the question yourself. The trade you took is a countertrend trade after a very strong shorter-term uptrend.
The trend was still in play, with no break and retest of the highs yet. In general, taking a short I would only consider if the channel was broken, prices retested the highs and made a lower high with a great signal bar and some space back to the EMA. A few minutes later this setup happened and I took a trade there.

See my screenshot for the channel.

channel.PNG (48.8 KiB) Viewed 1742 times

[misterf]

Let's see if today the trade was better than yesterday
2ES, TT, FBO on a trading range. I reset the count from the bottom of the range, on top the reversal candle wasn't a perfect TopGun reversal. I was treating the Main bias as a range.

[eric-pal]

Thank you for posting. One of the important aspects of all of this is context and repeatability. Any particular trade doesn't matter much, whether a winner or loser. This is an important point.

2ES? You may want to look closer on the rules for counting as every bar is higher than the previous. So essentially prices move 13 points without much of a retracement. 9:45 was pmi, and 10 was new home sales (which may trigger things in a slowing economy).

TT -> pattern based trading and the two bear bars do not have good follow through so perhaps very very aggressive. However, it does work. Stronger would be the recognition that all breakouts retrace towards previous highs, reflecting on the 9:45 peak, the 9:51 tracement, and then with this breakout the 9:55 high is expected to be retraced through. You listed this as FBO, and was this determined seeing the previous aspect? If so, it is a potential bias. However, declaring top of trading range may be premature? If it had continued, it would be listed as something else perhaps. 6 good bull bodies in that push, so good momentum. Bear opposition minimal. Better to use a lower high perhaps?

Also, in drawing trendlines, draw one beginning at the 10 news low and consider how this affects price bias.

The charts have a wealth of information. Wait "for your set" and have fun .

Hopefully helpful & good trades to you!

[misterf]

Thank you for the detailed explanation. Indeed it was a very aggressive trade, and counter trend but I've consider it a 2ES even if it was hidden, I wasn't expecting a lot of movement based on ATR and the holiday ahead. The strange thing is happening into my daily trading it's that I always catch 4 ticks on this very aggressive trades that are keeping my account alive meanwhile get stopped in almost every long I do (I do have a background of mainly short selling penny stocks and options).
I will take this days to review charts and patterns to be better prepared for next week
Happy ThanksGiving you all