Accurate reasoning not to take this F2EL?
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ahwilliams30
- Posts: 37
- Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2022 11:36 am
Accurate reasoning not to take this F2EL?
There's really only 2 things I see here on why not to take this F2EL: 1. the high volume area/old resistance and 2. that it's in the middle of a large range (where things can get dicey). Is this the correct reasoning not to take it? Anything else I'm missing? The green bubbles are things I was seeing going for the trade.
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Re: Accurate reasoning not to take this F2EL?
Simplify!
Do not begin with F???? until 2nd entries have been mastered as there is a prerequisite of knowledge which must fail first.
Failures are what most attempt to tackle first and are drawn to them. Then the failed failures, which have a higher probability, really throw them for a loop!
1. Please focus on 2nd entries at the KEPs.
2. Are you doing the vision drill? [this is actually more important than any particular trade]
Some aspects missed:
1. 4 strong bull bars in the 2nd leg requiring another test (so cant go short there) (always in section)
2. The trade is directly into where the bull breakout test will be verified (and it held). [horizontal support section & momentum / breakout factors. Test areas] (noted you have this marked but apparently overlook in real time?)
3. Signal bar is a doji (1 bar trading range).
4. Signal bar does not complete into low (where is the momentum?)
5. The great bear bar which finished on low 2 bars earlier, 0 follow through (caution warranted).
Hopefully helpful and good trades to you!
Do not begin with F???? until 2nd entries have been mastered as there is a prerequisite of knowledge which must fail first.
Failures are what most attempt to tackle first and are drawn to them. Then the failed failures, which have a higher probability, really throw them for a loop!
1. Please focus on 2nd entries at the KEPs.
2. Are you doing the vision drill? [this is actually more important than any particular trade]
Some aspects missed:
1. 4 strong bull bars in the 2nd leg requiring another test (so cant go short there) (always in section)
2. The trade is directly into where the bull breakout test will be verified (and it held). [horizontal support section & momentum / breakout factors. Test areas] (noted you have this marked but apparently overlook in real time?)
3. Signal bar is a doji (1 bar trading range).
4. Signal bar does not complete into low (where is the momentum?)
5. The great bear bar which finished on low 2 bars earlier, 0 follow through (caution warranted).
Hopefully helpful and good trades to you!
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ahwilliams30
- Posts: 37
- Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2022 11:36 am
Re: Accurate reasoning not to take this F2EL?
Hey Eric, thanks for your detailed reply! Here's a little more info about where this trade came from/what I'm doing:
I've been cataloguing all the trades from 2022 that have trap potential (ticked lower/higher than previous bar), close within 2 ticks of their high/low, and are touching the EMA. I've been taking screenshots of a before/after and putting them into a flashcard program. I go through a random selection of 500 of these flashcards each day and record the win rate as if I were going for 1:1 R/R. Through this I've found that I'm more consistent and more profitable when I include failure and HL/LH entries - as opposed to just taking second entries.
This doesn't make much sense to me because second entries are the easiest set up so shouldn't I be able to do better by just taking these? That seems to be your thought as well, but hasn't been the reality for me. I'm not sure why this might be the case, but maybe you have some thoughts?
I trade from 9:30 AM EST to 12:00 PM EST trading "normally". I am also doing the vision drill but not in a live market but rather in market replay with the speed turned up. I usually do this about an hour a day most days.
You're correct that I identified your point number 2 regarding the horizontal support/resistance and breakout area after the fact. This is not a trade I watched in real time but rather one in my flashcard deck. The other points I missed so thank you for pointing those out! I will be studying the heck out of this trade.
I've been cataloguing all the trades from 2022 that have trap potential (ticked lower/higher than previous bar), close within 2 ticks of their high/low, and are touching the EMA. I've been taking screenshots of a before/after and putting them into a flashcard program. I go through a random selection of 500 of these flashcards each day and record the win rate as if I were going for 1:1 R/R. Through this I've found that I'm more consistent and more profitable when I include failure and HL/LH entries - as opposed to just taking second entries.
This doesn't make much sense to me because second entries are the easiest set up so shouldn't I be able to do better by just taking these? That seems to be your thought as well, but hasn't been the reality for me. I'm not sure why this might be the case, but maybe you have some thoughts?
I trade from 9:30 AM EST to 12:00 PM EST trading "normally". I am also doing the vision drill but not in a live market but rather in market replay with the speed turned up. I usually do this about an hour a day most days.
You're correct that I identified your point number 2 regarding the horizontal support/resistance and breakout area after the fact. This is not a trade I watched in real time but rather one in my flashcard deck. The other points I missed so thank you for pointing those out! I will be studying the heck out of this trade.
Re: Accurate reasoning not to take this F2EL?
Thank you for the detail.
Here is the short answer:
You are taking the long road home (as supertramp would say).
1. The tick lower isn't meant as a trap. Traps make people feel superior. . . haha, I got you. It makes some feel smart. The 1 tick lower firmly establishes an impulse move from the beginning. It clearly establishes where one is wrong, 1 tick below the bar, and it quickly identifies the higher probability situations from everything else.
2. Work with perfect signal bars. . . Watch. Watch the live market and use the vision drills. Most are "trying to trade". Watching is trading. You want to see how prices create these bars.
3. In attempting to trade, one is taking "action" so one often feels better. . I'm trading I'm making progress. . . action, action, action. The issues becomes a lot of the action is wasted action because it isn't built on a strong foundation.
Watching prices move, and being comfortable with simply watching, you begin to "see beyond the bars". We are not pattern traders and are looking for specific effects. Watching allows one to begin to see what prints on the page at the end of the day and relate to how the market moved. It isn't a linear process.
4. Never ever use a 2 tick signal bar unless perhaps it is a 4 point bar. This negates a very key element. Use perfect to begin with. After one grows comfortable with "doing a lot of nothing", which is real mental work, and can take the appropriate signals, then incorporate 1 tick bars. There is an effect that you need to become familiar with.
Traps are appealing for another reason, often the "risk" is small. Small risk, allows one to say, "Well I won't lose too much". That mindset is prohibitive and dangerous. This is about playing an edge, when appropriate. Losing is an incapacitating mindset. Does it meet the trade rules: y/n, is my risk sized appropriately: y/n, take the trade. Lecture 7 (a bit down the road).
Please review the initial homework assignments and the specific criteria. It is detailed because it is the quickest shortcut to find the underlying meaning in "the bars" in relation to underlying edge characteristics (which is built up in the 4s section on static).
Hopefully helpful & good trades to you!
Here is the short answer:
You are taking the long road home (as supertramp would say).
1. The tick lower isn't meant as a trap. Traps make people feel superior. . . haha, I got you. It makes some feel smart. The 1 tick lower firmly establishes an impulse move from the beginning. It clearly establishes where one is wrong, 1 tick below the bar, and it quickly identifies the higher probability situations from everything else.
2. Work with perfect signal bars. . . Watch. Watch the live market and use the vision drills. Most are "trying to trade". Watching is trading. You want to see how prices create these bars.
3. In attempting to trade, one is taking "action" so one often feels better. . I'm trading I'm making progress. . . action, action, action. The issues becomes a lot of the action is wasted action because it isn't built on a strong foundation.
Watching prices move, and being comfortable with simply watching, you begin to "see beyond the bars". We are not pattern traders and are looking for specific effects. Watching allows one to begin to see what prints on the page at the end of the day and relate to how the market moved. It isn't a linear process.
4. Never ever use a 2 tick signal bar unless perhaps it is a 4 point bar. This negates a very key element. Use perfect to begin with. After one grows comfortable with "doing a lot of nothing", which is real mental work, and can take the appropriate signals, then incorporate 1 tick bars. There is an effect that you need to become familiar with.
Traps are appealing for another reason, often the "risk" is small. Small risk, allows one to say, "Well I won't lose too much". That mindset is prohibitive and dangerous. This is about playing an edge, when appropriate. Losing is an incapacitating mindset. Does it meet the trade rules: y/n, is my risk sized appropriately: y/n, take the trade. Lecture 7 (a bit down the road).
Please review the initial homework assignments and the specific criteria. It is detailed because it is the quickest shortcut to find the underlying meaning in "the bars" in relation to underlying edge characteristics (which is built up in the 4s section on static).
Hopefully helpful & good trades to you!
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ahwilliams30
- Posts: 37
- Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2022 11:36 am
Re: Accurate reasoning not to take this F2EL?
Thanks for breaking this down for me. I'll go back through the notes I took on the first few lectures and start watching the live market as you suggest. You're definitely right, this alone is very real mental work - some days it's a lot easier than others.
No point in taking the long road when I know where the short one is at.
No point in taking the long road when I know where the short one is at.
Re: Accurate reasoning not to take this F2EL?
Big Smile.
Also worth potentially reviewing Lecture 3 which specifically emphasizes the momentum edge of using tick charts
. It is a good exercise to run on every chart too.
Have a great weekend & good trades to you!
Also worth potentially reviewing Lecture 3 which specifically emphasizes the momentum edge of using tick charts
. It is a good exercise to run on every chart too.Have a great weekend & good trades to you!
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ahwilliams30
- Posts: 37
- Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2022 11:36 am
Re: Accurate reasoning not to take this F2EL?
Eric,
Unfortunately I did not take your advice and spent approximately 4 months chasing these 1:1 trades off the EMA. You can tell a child not to touch the hot stove but you can never force them not to do it. Sometimes you just have to let them touch the stove and learn for themselves...
I found some success, even passed an Apex account, but a look back at the numbers has shown me that this edge would not produce a sustainable living unless I levered way the hell up and tightened my belt a few notches (due to inevitable flat periods). While I think I have an edge doing this, I don't think it is enough. You were right when you said that Mack has already chosen the right index and a system with enough trades.
If you're interested in the numbers I made a brief YouTube video going over the numbers and more in depth what I'm talking about. https://youtu.be/NvFWA42hHH0
Back to good o'l PATS
Unfortunately I did not take your advice and spent approximately 4 months chasing these 1:1 trades off the EMA. You can tell a child not to touch the hot stove but you can never force them not to do it. Sometimes you just have to let them touch the stove and learn for themselves...
I found some success, even passed an Apex account, but a look back at the numbers has shown me that this edge would not produce a sustainable living unless I levered way the hell up and tightened my belt a few notches (due to inevitable flat periods). While I think I have an edge doing this, I don't think it is enough. You were right when you said that Mack has already chosen the right index and a system with enough trades.
If you're interested in the numbers I made a brief YouTube video going over the numbers and more in depth what I'm talking about. https://youtu.be/NvFWA42hHH0
Back to good o'l PATS
Re: Accurate reasoning not to take this F2EL?
Nice work passing the Apex test!
The markets can change, as well as spend a lot of time in trading range behavior. Because of that swing trades may not happen as much as people would like.
It actually is a very good study in system development and money management, so kudos on taking the time to look into things more closely. In the long run it is a good stepping stone.
Keep moving forward and good trades to you!
The markets can change, as well as spend a lot of time in trading range behavior. Because of that swing trades may not happen as much as people would like.
It actually is a very good study in system development and money management, so kudos on taking the time to look into things more closely. In the long run it is a good stepping stone.
Keep moving forward and good trades to you!