I'd like Top Pick Trading's view on entries that are based on bigger picture rather than individual ticks.
I came across this when viewing one of the videos on Youtube from Penguin Trades who also learned from Mack but did not find consistent success until he based his entries on larger context and at least 1:1 risk reward.
Here's an example of F2ES
https://imgur.com/a/4eekibe
And, the video with additional details: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLzxyx6rAGI
Just want to make sure that I am not missing some side effects of this besides waiting longer for the setups.
Any thoughts?
F2ES on a bigger picture?
Re: F2ES on a bigger picture?
Reading context is a skill. The markets are fractal and when you have a stronger sense of what prices are attempting to do, there are a variety of options available to help tailor to one's personality.
Based on your personality, you will need to determine if you can swing, scalp, or both. Each aspect involves being able to read probability. Scalping requires reading higher probability and more patience. Swing trading permits more flexibility around reading the probability, and probability will be lower.
This is part of what every trader has to figure out. A more important function is learning to trust oneself, and this only comes from study, self study, and training.
Someone else's interpretation may not be your own. What do you do then? What if they leave youtube? What if they say, "this is high probability" and it really isn't (and I see this all of the time)!
This is what makes trading difficult, especially in the beginning. Becoming comfortable with where you are, and especially at the beginning. . . . well it is a lot of "suck". Being comfortable to grow from there is the trick. Recognizing that when you work through the homework this week. Next week you'll find new things that you didn't see before. Things that potentially others are not voicing or seeing. Learning to begin to trust in ones own analysis.
Then, as you watch others, you may find that they may agree at points, and not at others. I was trading once, listening to Al Brook's commentary, and the market was in a very strong downtrend. There was nothing to buy, and yet, Al indicated buying potential. . . . and it was one of the few times that my analysis was extremely different from his. The market sold off, very hard, as expected, but without any commentary. At the end of the day, Al indicated that yes, his read was wrong, and it was an error. Does this make me a better trader than Al? Not in the least. In fact, one of the barriers to all of this is learning that being wrong is ok and that one can recover. If one captures runners, that can really change the game. How all of that comes together takes measurement. You will find that for the most part, retail traders are entering at approximately the same areas, based on their specific system and edge (when it is the same edge).
This is a short way of saying, study, review, reflect on your strengths and weaknesses. That will be more fruitful. Context is much more important than trade entry. Trade entry helps to reinforce probability.
Hopefully helpful and good trades to you!
Based on your personality, you will need to determine if you can swing, scalp, or both. Each aspect involves being able to read probability. Scalping requires reading higher probability and more patience. Swing trading permits more flexibility around reading the probability, and probability will be lower.
This is part of what every trader has to figure out. A more important function is learning to trust oneself, and this only comes from study, self study, and training.
Someone else's interpretation may not be your own. What do you do then? What if they leave youtube? What if they say, "this is high probability" and it really isn't (and I see this all of the time)!
This is what makes trading difficult, especially in the beginning. Becoming comfortable with where you are, and especially at the beginning. . . . well it is a lot of "suck". Being comfortable to grow from there is the trick. Recognizing that when you work through the homework this week. Next week you'll find new things that you didn't see before. Things that potentially others are not voicing or seeing. Learning to begin to trust in ones own analysis.
Then, as you watch others, you may find that they may agree at points, and not at others. I was trading once, listening to Al Brook's commentary, and the market was in a very strong downtrend. There was nothing to buy, and yet, Al indicated buying potential. . . . and it was one of the few times that my analysis was extremely different from his. The market sold off, very hard, as expected, but without any commentary. At the end of the day, Al indicated that yes, his read was wrong, and it was an error. Does this make me a better trader than Al? Not in the least. In fact, one of the barriers to all of this is learning that being wrong is ok and that one can recover. If one captures runners, that can really change the game. How all of that comes together takes measurement. You will find that for the most part, retail traders are entering at approximately the same areas, based on their specific system and edge (when it is the same edge).
This is a short way of saying, study, review, reflect on your strengths and weaknesses. That will be more fruitful. Context is much more important than trade entry. Trade entry helps to reinforce probability.
Hopefully helpful and good trades to you!
Re: F2ES on a bigger picture?
I am not affiliated with TPT, im just a student of TPT and Mack, I am also not yet profitable, so take this with a grain of salt.
I dont know this penguin guy and dont know if hes making money or not, but what I can say is that in that youtube video some of his trendlines are incorrect, and having correct trendlines is more important than any actual entry. Correct trendlines tell you when to expect reversals, when to know when a move is almost done, where the next target might be. Its critical these be correct in order to read the chart correctly.
I actually go for 1:1 on all my trades but I do not re-think the wheel about it. I try to read the chart as close to Mack as possible, and take the exact same trades that Mack marks.
The thing is, Mack is teaching people how to read the chart. That is the strategy, chart reading. Before you take any trade you have to KNOW where prices are going first, and then look for an entry to get onboard. You have to read the overall chart itself first before entering. The "bigger picture" or "larger context" is already being taught by mack, and it took me a while to actually realize this.
IF a trader picks mack marked trades with relatively good frequency, they almost always work for 1:1 and just a little bit of trade filtering makes this possible without changing the strategy at all. Just because Mack marks 10 trades a day, does not mean those are all good trades live. The objective is to read the chart and wait until you KNOW where prices are going and look for an entry to ride with it, and if that does not materialize, stay out. I dont know about anyone else, but if I do anything but KNOW where prices are going when I take a trade, its almost always a loser I dont even get lucky.
Mack goes for 4 ticks and a runner because hes a great chart reader with a level head. He does it the way he does because (as he says himself) he hates losers. Hates seeing prices back up after going a little bit in his direction. His scalp target of 4 ticks is extremely unforgiving. However, he does this for his reasons and in my opinion it comes down to psychology and repetition.
Mack always says something along the lines of "if you have enough room to get out" so he knows hes only going for 4 ticks and needs 6 ticks of overall movement. Knowing this, hes going to mark more trades because his initial profit target has enough room. If youre going for 1:1, its the same thing, just need to make sure you have enough room. But to be honest you really dont even need to consider this all that much because they almost always work for much more. Just have to trust the system and follow the rules.
Eric talks in the Lectures about how often a trader picks Mack marked trades and has a metric for it. It wasnt until recently that I realized how important this is. Its how we can measure our chart reading skills and quantify it. You can trade macks strategy any way you want, swing, scalp, swing & scalp, scalp & trail, whatever, but its not until a persons chart reading skill is good enough that they are picking Mack marked trades with a relatively high frequency that they can think to adjust or modify profit targets to suit that accuracy. The chart reading skill is good and the reasons for taking the trades you did are sound, and you do this with decent accuracy. Once that skill is achieved, more doors unlock.
Ive been guilty of this but when you start to venture out into other peoples youtube strategies, you no longer have the ability to compare your entries to a skilled chart reader and quantify your accuracy and ability and no longer have the benefit of over a decade of chart reviews. They just dont apply.
Lastly is psychology. The more you try to get out of your trades, the less accurate you will be. This is ok as long as you have an edge. Sometimes it is extremely hard to watch a trade go a point or 2 in your favor only to back up and take you out. People see this and think "it would have worked for a point" and adjust their whole strategy around their LOSERS instead of adjusting their strategy around their WINNERS.
Just some thoughts to consider. Eric and Mack do great work trying to make this all as digestible as possible but ultimately its up to the trader to listen and learn. The strategy is chart reading and the bigger picture first and foremost, and discipline and patience following it up.
Re: F2ES on a bigger picture?
Thanks Eric and Strange for sharing your thoughts.
I know a lot of traders learn from Mack (even the Penguin Trade) and then may tweak their strategy to suit their personality, risk tolerance and skill.
Wilson (from PATs forum) did a great job of utilizing limit orders (instead of Stop orders) and 5 ticks for his scalp.
He strictly follows Mack's approach and is very good at filtering high probability setups.
Penguin seems to completely ignore setups if they don't have a clear leg with a body (or structure as he calls it).
He studied Mack's strategy for 3 years but only became consistently profitable after going for 1:1 targets. It was also very beneficial for him from an emotional standpoint as he felt less pressure to enter trades and only waited for the best ones.
If his channel is anything to go by, he rarely has a loser day (but does having losing trades). There's no hard proof so you just have to take it for what it is.
I only recently started with TPT material and so am still going through the exercises and videos.
Ultimately, I believe that patience and discernment seems to be just as important as learning to read the charts (both of which may be closely related).
Are you done with the TPT course?
I know a lot of traders learn from Mack (even the Penguin Trade) and then may tweak their strategy to suit their personality, risk tolerance and skill.
Wilson (from PATs forum) did a great job of utilizing limit orders (instead of Stop orders) and 5 ticks for his scalp.
He strictly follows Mack's approach and is very good at filtering high probability setups.
Penguin seems to completely ignore setups if they don't have a clear leg with a body (or structure as he calls it).
He studied Mack's strategy for 3 years but only became consistently profitable after going for 1:1 targets. It was also very beneficial for him from an emotional standpoint as he felt less pressure to enter trades and only waited for the best ones.
If his channel is anything to go by, he rarely has a loser day (but does having losing trades). There's no hard proof so you just have to take it for what it is.
I only recently started with TPT material and so am still going through the exercises and videos.
Ultimately, I believe that patience and discernment seems to be just as important as learning to read the charts (both of which may be closely related).
Are you done with the TPT course?