Top Pick Trading Forum

Sundays I try to sit down for a while and get ready for mondays open and try to have a general idea of whats happening. Here is my analisis, Eric, and if you could provide feedback on any of this I would appreciate it. I am really trying to sit down every day MUCH more prepared than I used to and Ive got nobody else to ask

Market is very oversold, and on the daily chart we have blown by almost all points on the chart for a very long time and I cant really see any obvious bounce points to look for. The old range that started over a year ago looks like the most likely area of importance, specifically the midline. It looks to me like a bounce could happen here, alot of things converging. Obviously we dont "need" this info for our interaday trading but I find it really helps alot of the time to stay really familiar with the overall market.
On our interday 2000 tick chart ive got a massive valid downtrend, and the area of about 4150 was a previous large triple bottom. This triple bottom still has a gap and is untested. It looks like the market tried many times to fill it on friday in the last 5 hours before the market closed for the weekend. I THINK that gap is the next immediate move, maybe even gap up when the market opens back up and fill it.
After this, what else can/should I extrapolate from this information and what else can I be on the lookout for? This particular market situation is new for an inexperienced trader like myself, usually everything has been contained within the last few days/weeks and this movement is new to me. Obviously we want to let the market tell us what it wants to do regardless of what all this says but its nice to have an idea/plan/study.

Thanks for any feedback.

Obviously we want to let the market tell us what it wants to do

See, you nailed it!

As 80%+ of all price action can be seen throughout a year's charts, and knowing that the market is fractal, just about all of it is interpretible.

Example, you mention the latest sharp selloff is overdone. If it keeps moving south, was it really overdone? However, you already know there generally is a migration process that happens for prices to become more of a trading range, and then to turn upwards. Awareness of how prices typically migrate between the states, and simply allowing for these things to happen, prevents the anticipatory "predictions". It then simply becomes about risk application and mitigation as opportunities present.

As you review last year's charts, look for similar aspects in volatility and direction. Also, on the right hand side of the 1st graphic, it is worth noting what the channel looks like if you use the bottoms of prices, instead of the tops.

Hopefully helpful and good trades to you!