Top Pick Trading Forum

Appreciate some more guidance please? On the trade attached on 2Feb24 at 9.37am (CT), I took the entry as a HL/2L off the EMA (but not off the KEP, as drawn by me at that stage) but did wonder about the minus 2t close? Marco waited for another HL with a much nicer Sig bar, including rejection that my Sig was devoid of. Is my entry looking for “trouble;” to be avoided in future?
My trade is 2 contacts with a scalp at 4t’s and a runner at 30t’s that I manually adjust. Currently I do not have a Break-even Strategy loaded. Here, I brought the runner back for the prior high (HOD at that point), leaving many $’s on the table. My query is how to best manage runners? Hindsight tells me the strength (80+degrees) of the angle should have informed a more conservative move of my stop (they are the blue squares). I don’t recall much mention in the Lectures on managing runners and my guide has been Bob Volman’s first book. Does any of Al Brooks’ books cover this or are there other references you could refer me to please?

Some interesting questions. Will ask a few back to help focus.

2 ticks. 2 tick tops/bottoms happen all of the time. Who said it is ok to take? Why would a 2 tick signal bar be a good signal? When? Range bars do not have 2 ticks at the top or bottom of the bars in the direction they move. Obviously range bars and tick bars are different. Consider why 2 tick bars, especially on a tick chart are not good signals. Review many bars and see where 2, 2+ ticks happen at the top or bottom and what happens next . If a bar is 10+ ticks, and the top is 2 ticks, would you take it? How about 16? Reviewing this across many charts will help emphasize some critical points.

Marco's bar. You indicated some key characteristics. A difficulty in trading is the patience to wait for what one expects to see. When one doesn't see something in one's own judgement, impatience often can grow, and then the impulse to "do something". Consider the impulse to do anything is a wrong assessment. What happens is an edge is defined, and when those characteristics are present, one takes the trade. What is necessary to wait until something that Marco might take?

Runners. Scalping and swing trading are different. Runners fall in the category of swing trading. They occur with lower probability but have larger reward. The question becomes whether one can recognize the appropriate places when runners may occur. When Marco took his trade, if prices move 2-3 ticks above, you'll note "clear skies" above. While that isn't guaranteed, what you are seeing is a place where short stops have been run. Compare this to the area where your trade selection was.

With runners, a question becomes how often can one recognize the potential ahead of time because of the lower probability. If one isn't able to determine these areas well, the 50% split between scalp & runner can prove difficult. There are many different ways to manage runners. There are often targets which exist because of prior price action (previous day high/low), measured moves, or the potential to simply raise ones stop with every completion of a bar. Al sometime references 4 tics below a bull bar, and 1 tick below a bear bar (for ascending price movement). Al's reference was from a time when volatility was lower 2008-2016.

Hopefully helpful and good trades to you!

Thanks for your trouble Eric. Gives me more to work on. Cheers
Davida