Breakouts and Runners

[_strange_]

So breakouts are where a person might want to make sure they are employing a runner? You dont know when its going to turn around and of course you dont know definitively how strongly, but its a relatively reliable phenomenon and for a person that is much more clever than I am, if you notice the topping/bottoming, appears to provide a relatively reliable swing trade opportunity.

But more importantly it explains alot of market movement considering the market is usually in a trading range.

Its also very fractal, happens the same for tiny congestion on our 2k chart and say a 60 min chart.

This is what you hint at when you are talking about knowing when to deploy a runner right? Am I on the right planet? I can show this happening over and over and over again and nobody talks about it much (or im just not paying attention), seems extremely important.

Screenshot 2024-04-13 220124.png (541.81 KiB) Viewed 320 times

[eric-pal]

Let's simplify, and hopefully in doing so, many things will "come into frame".

A breakout has many different connotations. One can have a breakout of a trading range, the breakout of the previous bar, a breakout of a trend line. . . Because of this, the question becomes, how and when can a runner succeed (especially given the unforgiving efficient nature of the ES (which means previous breakout areas WILL BE RETESTED - and thus killing a runner which has been moved to a break even stop).

So, when is the best place to use runners? In a trending environment (and let them run until you see the "cycle" trading range elements coming into play). The whole (higher highs and higher lows in an uptrend). The lows show the strength of bulls in preventing strong pullbacks to previous low pivot areas (as simple as that).

So, in establishing a trending environment vs a trading range environment (the 1st question of importance), it underscores the decision of whether to use a runner or not.

Also note, trends often have up to 3 "pushes" before a more serious correction (consider this a type of wedge). While this isn't a "law", as you work through trending environment graphs, you may note the commonality. Mack, in his 2011 written text sometimes mentions this but isn't mentioned anymore.

Hopefully helpful and good trades to you!