Top Pick Trading Forum

Hello,

Here's my thoughts on this chart.
It only goes to trade number 13.

This is currently my knowledge of the PA.
I try to keep learning!

I would appreciate your comments!

Thanks

Beginning

1st section:
Downtrend (red trend line)- break expect new low.
After new low a strong bullish momentum - EMA holds and a 2ES emerged. (see my green arrow no.1)
Trade is aggressive because, congestion, new low downtrend and the previously strong series of bull bars.
From now on I am expanding my downtrend (blue trend line)
Now also downtrend (blue trendline) break new low.

2nd section:
Strong push above the EMA.
New uptrend (red trendline).
We get a break expecting a new high.
1.Trade (1st Entry)= No trade because, inside bar, big bar and 1st entry.
2.Trade (2nd Entry)= No trade because, doji signal bar and no retest of correction.
3.Trade (F2ndEntry)= High probability trade because EMA holds prices and shorts were trapped. also a strong signal bar.
Prices make a new high. Uptrend has played out!

3rd section:
Tight range emerged. No momentum, bears and bulls balance!
4th and 5th trade = no trade because too early to think of shorts (previously strong bull momentum) and also it's congestion.
6.Trade= No trade because it looks like a BOPB but it would be against the previous bias. Also, Most breakots fail.
7.Trade= Aggressive trade because strong bearish momentum from tight range and signal bar closes below EMA. Look at the next bar (reaction). Positive it is with the bias and strake signal bar.

4th section:
Breakout pullback from the tight range followed by strong bearish momentum.
New downtrend (red trendline)
8.Trade= No trade because far from the EMA and only a 1st entry and no failer!
Downtrend with a break and expect a new low.
9.Trade= No trade because bad signal bar. Too bad there was a nice two legged pullback back to the EMA but bad signal bar.
Downtend (red trend line) break new low.
However, prices are making more new lows and continued strong bearish momentum.
I am extending my downtrend (now blue trendline).
New downtrend (blue trend line) with break and new low.
10.Trade= No trade because counter trend trade. Too early to go long!
11.Trade= No trade. also too early for long setups. Also as HL too early because I'm not sure with the bigger support. And if you're not sure, then sit on your hands and do nothing!

5th section:
New uptrend (red trend line)
break expect new high.
12.Trade= No trade because bad signal bar. Again, nice two legged pullback back to the EMA but bad signal bar!
Uptrend with break new high.

6th section:
Strong push below EMA followed by strong bearish bars!
New downtrend (red trendline)
13.Trade= No trade because new high tested by the uptrend and strong push below the EMA!

Doing the hard work - Nice!

A few aspects to note, and please maintain these outputs because your perspective may change through the course.

1. For each numbered trade, there are 2 provided solutions. One against the initial visual, and a second based on Mack's solution. Note, as the charts can have differences, may the comparisons and analysis on each chart. There is usually good detail in the overall context in the solution, as well as within the candidate numbers.

2. Channels should often be attempted on the high and low sides of the pattern for best fit.

For any trades which you have questions after reviewing the solutions, please let us know. Note, that there may be other trades within, and initially candidate selection was to allow for recognition at relevant turning points.

Hopefully helpful & Good Trades To You!

Much more context in this chart but I will comment on the marked bars. Seems like a typical day where I only see 2-3 good trades.

Trade

1. No trade. Large bull bar closes on high but inside bar and only a first entry.
2. Green trade. EMA support, 2EL, looking for new high or move to the top of the range. Doji signal bar but may have trapped shorts. Blue trade if the bar was better.
3. Blue trade. EMA support, Excellent signal bar. Triple test at support. Looking for new high or test of the range top.
4. No trade. Inside tight up channel. Many strong bull bars.
5. No trade same reasons as #4 bar. I used to trade these trades all the time and had around 10% win rate.
6. No trade. F2EL, nice bar, below EMA. But I would still be expecting a reset of the highs. The area is congested.
7. No trade. Below EMA. I don’t see a clean setup here.
8. No trade. Far from EMA. Closed at the low of the channel. Possible support at that area. If the bar was higher and touched the EMA than possible good trade.
9. Green trade. 2ES off trend channel. Negatives bar closing near lows of channel. Bur far from EMA and did not trap the longs.
10. No trade. Nice trap and signal bar. Possible new low but 4 bars stacked, momentum is down, possible daily lows still need to be tested.
11. No trade. Below EMA 1ES. Down momentum. Possible looking to retest daily lows.
12. No trade. 4 bars staked, only 1EL. To far from the EMA. Previous trend is down may still need retest of lows.
13. No trade. 1EL. Need a break of the micro channel first.
14. No trade. In very tight up channel. Only 1st leg up, above EMA. I would not consider this short at all.
15. No trade. Nice bar at range lows and double bottom but below EMA, Prices have been trending down for a few hours. I may consider a higher low.
16. No trade. Congestion, Bar closes into resistance area.. Bar far from EMA.
17. Green trade. F2EL in down channel coming off a double top. More bear bars then bull bars, below EMA. I have gotten trapped many times on these trades and now I am taking the failures, even though its is very uncomfortable selling at the lows of a move.
18. No trade. Bar is in a strong down channel. Would need much more confirmation of a reversal before I went long.
19. No trade, Possible Green trade depending on If the bar ticked lower first then up. As on the chart its only a 1ES. Maybe good higher risk trade.
20. No trade.1ES, far from EMA. Maybe OK for advanced traders.

They are difficult as they very much emulate real trading decisions. These decisions can happen on any bar and therefore the patience to both analyze and understand where the best entries are takes a bit of work. Sometimes the context is great, but the setup. . . not so much sol. Sometimes the bar is great, but the context is wrong. However, when both come together, the probability really works to your favor.

Remember to review both solutions sets and graphics. There are differences and that is also meaningful.

Good trades to you!